Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaspiy vs Ekibastuz — 1. Division 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
7/12/20241. Division1. Division · Round 15Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kaspiy65%
×Draw18%
Ekibastuz17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
2.40
Ekibastuz
1.14

Kaspiy creates 111% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
2.73
Ekibastuz
1.33

allows per match

Kaspiy
0.95
Ekibastuz
2.07

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Ekibastuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
83%
Kaspiy or Ekibastuz
82%
Draw or Ekibastuz
35%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
43%
Ekibastuz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
91%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
69%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
42%
Ekibastuz 1+ goals
68%
Ekibastuz 2+ goals
32%
Ekibastuz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
79%
Ekibastuz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

Ekibastuz away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 2.73 + Ekibastuz defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.40

Ekibastuz attack 1.33 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kaspiy scores more
65%
level
18%
Ekibastuz scores more
17%

Kaspiy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Ekibastuz

Ekibastuz beat Kaspiy 2-1 in 1. Division on July 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov in Zhanaozen.