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Ekibastuz vs Kaspiy — 1. Division 2019

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kaspiy
Kaspiy
K. Sultanov 65'
A. Seitov 60'
T. Agimanov 3'
N. Strizhkov 67', 18'
9/26/20241. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ekibastuz30%
×Draw24%
Kaspiy46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekibastuz
1.35
Kaspiy
1.71

Kaspiy creates 27% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 41 away

creates per match

Ekibastuz
1.75
Kaspiy
1.93

allows per match

Ekibastuz
1.49
Kaspiy
0.95

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par
Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Kaspiy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw
54%
Ekibastuz or Kaspiy
76%
Draw or Kaspiy
70%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+
13%
Kaspiy wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals
74%
Ekibastuz 2+ goals
39%
Ekibastuz 3+ goals
15%
Kaspiy 1+ goals
82%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
51%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)
40%
Kaspiy (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.49 · 91 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kaspiy attack 1.93 + Ekibastuz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ekibastuz scores more
30%
level
24%
Kaspiy scores more
46%

Kaspiy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
T. Agimanov
18'
N. Strizhkov
28'
T. Agimanov
35'
K. Sultanov
45+1'
S. Shamshi
46'
K. Taipov
51'
A. Kasain
60'
A. Seitov
60'
B. Rakhmet← B. Rakhmet
65'
K. Sultanov
67'
N. Strizhkov
68'
S. Shamshi← M. Khalmatov
68'
B. Kabylan← A. Aimanov
74'
K. Gorizanov
79'
M. Galkin← D. Kakenov
79'
D. Suslov← D. Suslov
83'
A. Nabikhanov
86'
B. Zulfikarov← B. Zulfikarov
86'
D. Zaynetdinov← E. Kadyrbaev
87'
M. Golubnichiy
89'
N. Ayazbaev
90+2'
A. Erken← A. Erken
90+2'
A. Suleymenov← A. Suleymenov
90+3'
A. Kasain
90+3'
A. Kasain

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekibastuz vs Kaspiy

Ekibastuz beat Kaspiy 3-2 in 1. Division on September 26, 2024.

Goals: T. Agimanov (3'), N. Strizhkov (18', 67'), A. Seitov (60'), K. Sultanov (65').

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Ėkibastyz.