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Kaspiy vs Akzhayik — 1. Division 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
10/3/20241. Division1. Division · Round 27Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kaspiy58%
×Draw21%
Akzhayik21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
2.05
Akzhayik
1.15

Kaspiy creates 78% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
2.73
Akzhayik
1.34

allows per match

Kaspiy
0.95
Akzhayik
1.38

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
79%
Kaspiy or Akzhayik
79%
Draw or Akzhayik
42%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
35%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
87%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
61%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
33%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
68%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
32%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
73%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 2.73 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.05

Akzhayik attack 1.34 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kaspiy scores more
58%
level
21%
Akzhayik scores more
21%

Kaspiy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Akzhayik

Kaspiy beat Akzhayik 3-0 in 1. Division on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov in Zhanaozen.