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Akzhayik vs Kaspiy — Premier League 2019

Akzhayik
Akzhayik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaspiy
Kaspiy
8/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion im. Petra Atoyana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Akzhayik48%
×Draw27%
Kaspiy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akzhayik
1.39
Kaspiy
0.93

Akzhayik creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

creates per match

Akzhayik
1.04
Kaspiy
0.85

allows per match

Akzhayik
1.00
Kaspiy
1.73

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par
Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Kaspiy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw
75%
Akzhayik or Kaspiy
73%
Draw or Kaspiy
52%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+
23%
Kaspiy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals
75%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
40%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
16%
Kaspiy 1+ goals
61%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
24%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)
65%
Kaspiy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.73 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 1.04 + Kaspiy defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kaspiy attack 0.85 + Akzhayik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akzhayik scores more
48%
level
27%
Kaspiy scores more
25%

Akzhayik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akzhayik vs Kaspiy

Akzhayik beat Kaspiy 2-0 in Premier League on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Petra Atoyana in Ural'sk.