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Kashiwa Reysol vs Jubilo Iwata — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
9/14/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol45%
×Draw26%
Jubilo Iwata29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.45
Jubilo Iwata
1.10

Kashiwa Reysol creates 32% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.29
Jubilo Iwata
0.83

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.37
Jubilo Iwata
1.60

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
71%
Kashiwa Reysol or Jubilo Iwata
74%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
55%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
22%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
77%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
42%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
18%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
67%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
30%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
61%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.37 · 135 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.29 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.83 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
45%
level
26%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
29%

Kashiwa Reysol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Jubilo Iwata

Jubilo Iwata beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 in J1 League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.