Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jubilo Iwata vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
9/3/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jubilo Iwata33%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.25
Kashiwa Reysol
1.44

Kashiwa Reysol creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 134 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.21
Kashiwa Reysol
1.28

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.60
Kashiwa Reysol
1.29

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
59%
Jubilo Iwata or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
67%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
14%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
71%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
36%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
13%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
76%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
42%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
44%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.21 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.28 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
33%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
41%

Kashiwa Reysol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Jubilo Iwata 2–2 Kashiwa Reysol

Jubilo Iwata and Kashiwa Reysol drew 2-2 in J1 League on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa in Fukuroi.