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Kashiwa Reysol vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Champions League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
4/4/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol37%
×Draw27%
Jeonbuk Motors36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.29
Jeonbuk Motors
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors
1.77

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.75
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
64%
Kashiwa Reysol or Jeonbuk Motors
73%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
63%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
17%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
72%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
37%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
72%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
36%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
51%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.25 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
37%
level
27%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
36%

Kashiwa Reysol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashiwa Reysol vs Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 in AFC Champions League on April 4, 2018.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.