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Jeonbuk Motors vs Kashiwa Reysol — AFC Champions League 2018

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
2/13/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors62%
×Draw20%
Kashiwa Reysol18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
2.25
Kashiwa Reysol
1.14

Jeonbuk Motors creates 97% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
2.18
Kashiwa Reysol
1.33

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.95
Kashiwa Reysol
2.33

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
82%
Jeonbuk Motors or Kashiwa Reysol
80%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
38%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
39%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
89%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
65%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
39%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
68%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
32%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
77%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.33 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
62%
level
20%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
18%

Jeonbuk Motors at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Jeonbuk Motors 3–2 Kashiwa Reysol

Jeonbuk Motors beat Kashiwa Reysol 3-2 in AFC Champions League on February 13, 2018.

The match was played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in Jeonju.