Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Albirex Niigata

M. Watai 32'

Y. Komi 14' (pen)

4/26/2025

J1 League · Round 12Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol40%

×Draw27%

Albirex Niigata34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.22

Kashiwa Reysol

1.34

Albirex Niigata

1.22

Kashiwa Reysol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.30

Albirex Niigata

1.20

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.24

Albirex Niigata

1.38

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol-0.01on par

Albirex Niigata-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

66%

Kashiwa Reysol or Albirex Niigata

73%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

60%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

18%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

74%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

39%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

15%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

70%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

34%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

54%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.30 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Albirex Niigata attack 1.20 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

40%

level

27%

Albirex Niigata scores more

34%

Kashiwa Reysol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Y. Yamada

Kashiwa Reysol · M

7.7

Match Events

13'

Shumpei Naruse

14'

Y. KomiPenalty

32'

M. Watai↳ Y. Yamada

66'

M. Hosoya← Y. Kakita

71'

Danilo Gomes← Y. Takagi

71'

K. Kasai← J. Okumura

73'

K. Kinoshita← Y. Yamada

87'

87'

87'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashiwaAlbirex

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots13

1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.38

2Corners5

6Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots13

6On Target2

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

661Total Passes466

566Accurate Passes361

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

J1 League: Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Albirex Niigata

Kashiwa Reysol and Albirex Niigata drew 1-1 in J1 League on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Y. Komi (14' pen), M. Watai (32').

Kashiwa Reysol controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Albirex Niigata