Albirex Niigata 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kashiwa Reysol

K. Chiba 57'

K. Kinoshita 15'

3/30/2024

J1 League · Round 5Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Albirex Niigata36%

×Draw26%

Kashiwa Reysol38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.37

Albirex Niigata

1.31

Kashiwa Reysol

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.26

creates per match

1.38

1.36

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.26

Kashiwa Reysol

1.38

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.36

Kashiwa Reysol

1.35

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less

Kashiwa Reysol-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

62%

Albirex Niigata or Kashiwa Reysol

74%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

64%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

16%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

73%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

38%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

75%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

40%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

48%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.38 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

36%

level

26%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

38%

Kashiwa Reysol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Kojima

Albirex Niigata · G

9.3

Match Events

15'

K. Kinoshita↳ Matheus Sávio

55'

O. Yamamoto← K. Kinoshita

57'

K. Chiba↳ Y. Takagi

63'

Yoshiaki Takagi

73'

T. Shimamura← Y. Yamada

73'

K. Kumasaka← T. Tsuchiya

78'

M. Nagakura← K. Taniguchi

78'

M. Hasegawa← Y. Takagi

78'

Y. Komi← S. Ota

86'

F. Hayakawa← Y. Horigome

90'

S. Toshima← Matheus Sávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexKashiwa

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots22

0.99Expected Goals (xG)2.81

4Corners10

8Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots22

2On Target11

5Off Target7

5Blocked4

6Inside Box14

6Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

683Total Passes360

582Accurate Passes277

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0