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Kashima vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Kashima
Kashima
Preview
11:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
11/21/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 15Mercari Stadium
Big match
55%
Kashima
model favours
55%26%19%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kashima55%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.54
Shimizu S-pulse
0.79

Kashima creates 95% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.70
Shimizu S-pulse
0.93

allows per match

Kashima
0.64
Shimizu S-pulse
1.37

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
81%
Kashima or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
45%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
29%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
79%
Kashima 2+ goals
45%
Kashima 3+ goals
20%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
55%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
74%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.64 · 33 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.70 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.93 + Kashima defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kashima scores more
55%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
19%

Kashima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
  • Kashima have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kashima
WWLWW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kashima host Shimizu S-pulse

November 21, 2026: Kashima take on Shimizu S-pulse in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kashima host Shimizu S-pulse at Mercari Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.