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Kashima vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
Preview
10:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
12/16/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16Mercari Stadium
Big match
39%
Kashima
model favours
39%28%34%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kashima39%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.25
Machida Zelvia
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 151 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.56
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Kashima
0.89
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
66%
Kashima or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
61%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
17%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
71%
Kashima 2+ goals
36%
Kashima 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
68%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
32%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
53%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.56 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashima scores more
39%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
34%

Kashima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Kashima 1 vs Machida Zelvia 3
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kashima
Balanced
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
53%PossessionBiggest gap45%
80%Pass accuracy78%
13.6Shots12.9
1.44xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
KashimaMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Kashima
1
Draws
2
Machida Zelvia
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–13–01–21–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Kashima
WWLWW
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kashima face Machida Zelvia (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Kashima hosting Machida Zelvia. Match starts December 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kashima host Machida Zelvia at Mercari Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.