Kashima vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018
Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 80+ matches
Kashima47%
Kyoto Sanga27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kashima creates 41% more chances
Season form · 151 home / 80 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kashima ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches
Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kashima attack 1.56 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44
Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Kashima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
- 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
8 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce HiroshimaKashima
Consadole Sapporo
Urawa
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe
Vegalta Sendai
Yokohama F. Marinos
Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu
Nagoya Grampus
Jubilo Iwata
Kashiwa Reysol
V-varen NagasakiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kashima host Kyoto Sanga on Saturday, 24 April 2027 at 10:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Kashima host Kyoto Sanga
April 24, 2027: Kashima take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Kashima host Kyoto Sanga at Mercari Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.