Kashima 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kashiwa Reysol

2/21/2026

J1 League · Round 3Mercari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kashima35%

×Draw26%

Kashiwa Reysol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.38

Kashima

1.31

Kashiwa Reysol

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.63

1.14

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Kashima

1.42

Kashiwa Reysol

1.63

allows per match

Kashima

1.14

Kashiwa Reysol

1.21

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Kashima-0.42scores less

Kashiwa Reysol-0.06on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

61%

Kashima or Kashiwa Reysol

74%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

65%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

16%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

73%

Kashima 2+ goals

38%

Kashima 3+ goals

14%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

75%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

40%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

48%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 6 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.42 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.63 + Kashima defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashima scores more

35%

level

26%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

39%

Kashiwa Reysol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff