Kashima 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kashiwa Reysol

9/21/2024

J1 League · Round 31Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashima33%

×Draw28%

Kashiwa Reysol39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Kashima

1.13

Kashiwa Reysol

1.25

Kashiwa Reysol creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.24

creates per match

1.55

0.96

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Kashima

1.24

Kashiwa Reysol

1.55

allows per match

Kashima

0.96

Kashiwa Reysol

1.02

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Kashima-0.24scores less

Kashiwa Reysol+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

61%

Kashima or Kashiwa Reysol

72%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

67%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

13%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

68%

Kashima 2+ goals

31%

Kashima 3+ goals

11%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

71%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

36%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

46%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.24 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.55 + Kashima defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashima scores more

33%

level

28%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

39%

Kashiwa Reysol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

K. Nono

Kashima · D

8.0

Match Events

13'

Tomoya Inukai

26'

Sachiro Toshima

34'

Mao Hosoya

46'

S. Morooka← H. Nakama

63'

Talles← Y. Higuchi

66'

E. Shirai← S. Toshima

77'

T. Koyamatsu← Y. Yamada

77'

Y. Kakita← K. Kinoshita

78'

H. Tokuda← S. Nago

90+1'

K. Kumasawa← K. Tezuka

90+1'

E. Katayama← Diego

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashimaKashiwa

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots8

0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.47

3Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target2

3Off Target6

6Blocked0

5Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

484Total Passes374

375Accurate Passes287

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1