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Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
11/11/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Kashima45%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.43
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

Kashima creates 32% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 134 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.56
Kashiwa Reysol
1.28

allows per match

Kashima
0.89
Kashiwa Reysol
1.29

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
71%
Kashima or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
55%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
22%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
76%
Kashima 2+ goals
42%
Kashima 3+ goals
17%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
66%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
29%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
61%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.56 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.28 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kashima scores more
45%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
29%

Kashima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol

Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol drew 1-1 in J1 League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.