Kasetsart FC 1–2 Esan Pattaya: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Esan Pattaya

4/7/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 32Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kasetsart FC39%

×Draw27%

Esan Pattaya33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchEsan Pattaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Kasetsart FC

1.29

Esan Pattaya

1.16

Kasetsart FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

1.32

creates per match

1.10

1.21

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Esan Pattaya

1.10

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.21

Esan Pattaya

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Esan Pattaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

67%

Kasetsart FC or Esan Pattaya

73%

Draw or Esan Pattaya

61%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

18%

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

72%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

37%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

14%

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals

69%

Esan Pattaya 2+ goals

32%

Esan Pattaya 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

54%

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

39%

level

27%

Esan Pattaya scores more

33%

Kasetsart FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff