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Esan Pattaya vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
10/6/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 8Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya50%
×Draw25%
Kasetsart FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.58
Kasetsart FC
1.04

Esan Pattaya creates 52% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 132 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
75%
Esan Pattaya or Kasetsart FC
75%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
50%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
26%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
79%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
47%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
21%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
65%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
28%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
67%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
50%
level
25%
Kasetsart FC scores more
25%

Esan Pattaya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Esan Pattaya 3–3 Kasetsart FC

Esan Pattaya and Kasetsart FC drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nong Prue Stadium in Pattaya.