Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kasetsart FC vs Chonburi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
11/3/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 11Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kasetsart FC35%
×Draw28%
Chonburi FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.16
Chonburi FC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Chonburi FC
1.19

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Chonburi FC
1.00

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Chonburi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
63%
Kasetsart FC or Chonburi FC
72%
Draw or Chonburi FC
65%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
14%
Chonburi FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
69%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
32%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
11%
Chonburi FC 1+ goals
70%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
34%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
49%
Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Chonburi FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Chonburi FC attack 1.19 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
35%
level
28%
Chonburi FC scores more
37%

Chonburi FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Chonburi FC

Kasetsart FC beat Chonburi FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.