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Chonburi FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
3/1/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Chonburi Daikin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chonburi FC65%
×Draw20%
Kasetsart FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chonburi FC
2.04
Kasetsart FC
0.85

Chonburi FC creates 140% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Chonburi FC
2.24
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Chonburi FC
0.82
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw
85%
Chonburi FC or Kasetsart FC
80%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
35%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+
40%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals
87%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
60%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
33%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
57%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
21%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
81%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 2.24 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Chonburi FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chonburi FC scores more
65%
level
20%
Kasetsart FC scores more
15%

Chonburi FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chonburi FC vs Kasetsart FC

Chonburi FC beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Chonburi Daikin Stadium in Chonburi.