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Kasetsart FC vs Army United — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 2
Army United
Army United
2/16/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kasetsart FC40%
×Draw27%
Army United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.33
Army United
1.19

Kasetsart FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Army United
1.16

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Army United
1.35

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Army United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
67%
Kasetsart FC or Army United
73%
Draw or Army United
60%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
18%
Army United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
74%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
38%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
15%
Army United 1+ goals
70%
Army United 2+ goals
33%
Army United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
55%
Army United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Army United attack 1.16 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Army United scores more
33%

Kasetsart FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–2 Army United

Army United beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok).