Army United 3–3 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Army United

FT

3 – 3

Kasetsart FC

5/19/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 14Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Army United55%

×Draw23%

Kasetsart FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Army UnitedExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.10

Army United

1.88

Kasetsart FC

1.10

Army United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 132 away

1.90

creates per match

0.88

1.32

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Army United

1.90

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Army United

1.32

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Army United+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Army United or draw

78%

Army United or Kasetsart FC

77%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

45%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+

32%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals

85%

Army United 2+ goals

56%

Army United 3+ goals

29%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

67%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

30%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)

72%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Army United scores more

55%

level

23%

Kasetsart FC scores more

22%

Army United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff