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Kasetsart FC vs Ang Thong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 1
Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
9/9/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kasetsart FC50%
×Draw25%
Ang Thong FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.63
Ang Thong FC
1.07

Kasetsart FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Ang Thong FC
0.93

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Ang Thong FC
1.93

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Ang Thong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
75%
Kasetsart FC or Ang Thong FC
75%
Draw or Ang Thong FC
50%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
27%
Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
80%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
48%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
22%
Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
66%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
29%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
67%
Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Ang Thong FC scores more
25%

Kasetsart FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–1 Ang Thong FC

Kasetsart FC and Ang Thong FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok).