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Ang Thong FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
FT
2 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
5/5/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ang Thong FC50%
×Draw23%
Kasetsart FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ang Thong FC
1.85
Kasetsart FC
1.33

Ang Thong FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 132 away

creates per match

Ang Thong FC
1.86
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Ang Thong FC
1.79
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ang Thong FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ang Thong FC or draw
72%
Ang Thong FC or Kasetsart FC
77%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
50%

Winning margin

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
28%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
84%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
55%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
28%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
74%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
38%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
64%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ang Thong FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ang Thong FC attack 1.86 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ang Thong FC scores more
50%
level
23%
Kasetsart FC scores more
28%

Ang Thong FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ang Thong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ang Thong FC 2–1 Kasetsart FC

Ang Thong FC beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong).