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Kasba Tadla vs KAC Kenitra — Botola Pro 2025

Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
FT
0 – 0
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
5/26/2017Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kasba Tadla48%
×Draw28%
KAC Kenitra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasba Tadla
1.33
KAC Kenitra
0.83

Kasba Tadla creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kasba Tadla
0.33
KAC Kenitra
0.67

allows per match

Kasba Tadla
1.00
KAC Kenitra
2.33

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw
77%
Kasba Tadla or KAC Kenitra
72%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
52%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
23%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
74%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
38%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
15%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
56%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
20%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
67%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.33 + KAC Kenitra defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

KAC Kenitra attack 0.67 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more
48%
level
28%
KAC Kenitra scores more
23%

Kasba Tadla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kasba Tadla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Kasba Tadla 0–0 KAC Kenitra

Kasba Tadla and KAC Kenitra drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on May 26, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla).