Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KAC Kenitra vs Kasba Tadla — Botola Pro 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
3 – 2
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
1/1/2017Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade Municipal de Kénitra (Kénitra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KAC Kenitra71%
×Draw18%
Kasba Tadla12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
2.33
Kasba Tadla
0.83

KAC Kenitra creates 181% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
2.67
Kasba Tadla
0.67

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Kasba Tadla
2.00

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
88%
KAC Kenitra or Kasba Tadla
82%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
29%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
47%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
90%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
67%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
41%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
56%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
20%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
86%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 2.67 + Kasba Tadla defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kasba Tadla attack 0.67 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
71%
level
18%
Kasba Tadla scores more
12%

KAC Kenitra at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs Kasba Tadla

KAC Kenitra beat Kasba Tadla 3-2 in Botola Pro on January 1, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra (Kénitra).