Kasba Tadla 1–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Kasba Tadla

FT

1 – 1

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

10/27/2018

Botola 2 · Round 7Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla33%

×Draw29%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasba TadlaExpected goals in this matchChabab Atl. Khenifra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.20

Kasba Tadla

1.07

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.20

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

0.93

creates per match

0.79

1.60

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Kasba Tadla

0.93

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.79

allows per match

Kasba Tadla

1.60

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw

61%

Kasba Tadla or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

71%

Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

67%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

13%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

66%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

29%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

9%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

70%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

34%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

45%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more

33%

level

29%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

39%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff