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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs Kasba Tadla — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
1 – 0
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
3/2/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 22Stade Municipal (Khénifra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra47%
×Draw33%
Kasba Tadla20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.07
Kasba Tadla
0.60

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 78% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.02
Kasba Tadla
0.40

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80
Kasba Tadla
1.13

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
80%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Kasba Tadla
67%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
53%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
19%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
66%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
29%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
9%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
45%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
12%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
70%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
47%
level
33%
Kasba Tadla scores more
20%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–0 Kasba Tadla

Chabab Atl. Khenifra beat Kasba Tadla 1-0 in Botola 2 on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Khénifra).