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Kasba Tadla vs AS Salé — Botola 2 2025

Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
FT
1 – 2
AS Salé
AS Salé
3/9/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 23Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla35%
×Draw27%
AS Salé37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasba Tadla
1.22
AS Salé
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kasba Tadla
0.93
AS Salé
0.92

allows per match

Kasba Tadla
1.60
AS Salé
1.50

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par
AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

AS Salé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw
63%
Kasba Tadla or AS Salé
73%
Draw or AS Salé
65%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
15%
AS Salé wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
70%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
34%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
12%
AS Salé 1+ goals
72%
AS Salé 2+ goals
36%
AS Salé 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
49%
AS Salé (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more
35%
level
27%
AS Salé scores more
37%

AS Salé at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Kasba Tadla 1–2 AS Salé

AS Salé beat Kasba Tadla 2-1 in Botola 2 on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla).