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AS Salé vs Kasba Tadla — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 0
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
11/3/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 8Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AS Salé44%
×Draw31%
Kasba Tadla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.12
Kasba Tadla
0.76

AS Salé creates 47% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Kasba Tadla
0.40

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Kasba Tadla
1.13

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
75%
AS Salé or Kasba Tadla
69%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
56%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
18%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
67%
AS Salé 2+ goals
31%
AS Salé 3+ goals
10%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
53%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
18%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
64%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Salé scores more
44%
level
31%
Kasba Tadla scores more
25%

AS Salé at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Salé vs Kasba Tadla

AS Salé beat Kasba Tadla 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar (Salé).