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Kasımpaşa vs Göztepe — League #203 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Göztepe
Göztepe
M. Ben Ouanes 46'
Victor Hugo 90+2'
A. Ildız 33' (pen)
5/30/2025League #203League #203 · Round 38Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kasımpaşa36%
×Draw23%
Göztepe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.59
Göztepe
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
1.50
Göztepe
1.41

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.97
Göztepe
1.68

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.07on par
Göztepe-0.55scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
59%
Kasımpaşa or Göztepe
77%
Draw or Göztepe
64%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
18%
Göztepe wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
80%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
47%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
21%
Göztepe 1+ goals
82%
Göztepe 2+ goals
50%
Göztepe 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
47%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 7 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.68 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.50 + Göztepe defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Göztepe attack 1.41 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
36%
level
23%
Göztepe scores more
41%

Göztepe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. HajradinovićKasımpaşaKasımpaşa · M
7.9

Match Events

31'
HélitonPenalty confirmed
33'
A. IldızPenalty
46'
M. Ben Ouanes↳ M. Fall
63'
G. Gül← Y. İnci
75'
Furkan Bayır
75'
Victor Hugo← K. Kanatsızkuş
83'
Taha Altıkardeş
84'
A. Aktaş← N. Opoku
87'
N. Sangaré← A. Ildız
90+1'
B. Yıldızlı← C. Keleş
90+1'
K. Günter← N. Miroshi
90+1'
M. Bokélé← Emersonn
90+1'
T. Durakçay← A. Dennis
90+2'
Victor Hugo

Possession

67%Kasımpaşa

Shots

18Kasımpaşa

Pass accuracy

54%Kasımpaşa

Statistics

KasımpaşaGöztepe
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots14
1.99Expected Goals (xG)2.32
4Corners5
4Fouls20
Shots
18Total Shots14
5On Target5
9Off Target7
4Blocked2
10Inside Box11
8Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
506Total Passes234
418Accurate Passes166
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.50Goals Prevented0.50
Discipline
4Fouls20
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League #203: Kasımpaşa 1–2 Göztepe

Göztepe beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 in League #203 on May 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Ildız (33' pen), M. Ben Ouanes (46'), Victor Hugo (90+2').

Kasımpaşa controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.