Göztepe 5–0 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats | League #203

Göztepe

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kasımpaşa

İ. Köybaşı 90+3'

Victor Hugo 86'

Rômulo 78'

Juan 52'

D. Tijanič 7'

1/13/2025

League #203 · Round 19Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Göztepe59%

×Draw22%

Kasımpaşa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.97

Göztepe

1.91

Kasımpaşa

0.97

Göztepe creates 97% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.14

creates per match

1.13

0.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Göztepe

2.14

Kasımpaşa

1.13

allows per match

Göztepe

0.82

Kasımpaşa

1.67

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Göztepe-0.14scores less

Kasımpaşa+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

81%

Göztepe or Kasımpaşa

78%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

41%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

35%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

85%

Göztepe 2+ goals

57%

Göztepe 3+ goals

30%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

62%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

25%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

76%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 7 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.14 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kasımpaşa attack 1.13 + Göztepe defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Göztepe scores more

59%

level

22%

Kasımpaşa scores more

19%

Göztepe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

Rômulo

Göztepe · F

9.3

Match Events

7'

D. Tijanič↳ A. Dennis

14'

Lasse NielsenGoal cancelled

34'

Rômulo

43'

Sadık Çiftpınar

46'

M. Ben Ouanes← Nuno da Costa

46'

A. Kara← A. Barák

52'

Juan↳ N. Miroshi

58'

J. Espinoza← K. Rodrigues

62'

Nicholas Opoku

63'

Victor Hugo← D. Tijanič

71'

Nicholas Opoku

71'

Nicholas Opoku

73'

Y. Özcan← G. Gül

76'

K. Matsuki← Juan

78'

Rômulo↳ K. Matsuki

81'

A. Ildız← A. Dennis

81'

İ. Köybaşı← Djalma Silva

81'

O. Bayrak← L. Nielsen

82'

Cafú← Cláudio Winck

84'

Mortadha Ben Ouanes

86'

Victor Hugo

90+5'

İsmail KöybaşıGoal confirmed

90+3'

İ. Köybaşı↳ Rômulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeKasımpaşa

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots10

3.31Expected Goals (xG)0.64

8Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

10On Target0

2Off Target7

6Blocked3

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

356Total Passes373

247Accurate Passes243

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-0.39Goals Prevented-0.39

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2