Kasımpaşa 2–3 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Kasımpaşa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Gaziantep FK

8/30/2025

League #203 · Round 4Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kasımpaşa57%

×Draw20%

Gaziantep FK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KasımpaşaExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.33

Kasımpaşa

2.22

Gaziantep FK

1.33

Kasımpaşa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.89

creates per match

1.09

1.56

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Kasımpaşa

1.89

Gaziantep FK

1.09

allows per match

Kasımpaşa

1.56

Gaziantep FK

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw

78%

Kasımpaşa or Gaziantep FK

80%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

43%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

35%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

89%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

65%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

38%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

74%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

38%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

72%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.89 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.22

Gaziantep FK attack 1.09 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more

57%

level

20%

Gaziantep FK scores more

22%

Kasımpaşa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff