Gaziantep FK 2–1 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kasımpaşa

2/9/2026

League #203 · Round 21Kalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaziantep FK44%

×Draw23%

Kasımpaşa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.46

Gaziantep FK

1.74

Kasımpaşa

1.46

Gaziantep FK creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.23

creates per match

1.38

1.54

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

1.23

Kasımpaşa

1.38

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

1.54

Kasımpaşa

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

68%

Gaziantep FK or Kasımpaşa

77%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

56%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

23%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

82%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

52%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

25%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

77%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

43%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

58%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.23 + Kasımpaşa defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Kasımpaşa attack 1.38 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

44%

level

23%

Kasımpaşa scores more

32%

Gaziantep FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff