Karviná 1–2 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Karviná

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bohemians 1905

F. Vecheta 9'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal 38'

J. Matoušek 1'

8/17/2024

Czech Liga · Round 5Městský Stadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Karviná40%

×Draw26%

Bohemians 190534%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarvináExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Karviná

1.40

Bohemians 1905

1.27

Karviná creates 10% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 120 away

1.16

creates per match

1.08

1.45

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Karviná

1.16

Bohemians 1905

1.08

allows per match

Karviná

1.45

Bohemians 1905

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Karviná or draw

66%

Karviná or Bohemians 1905

74%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

60%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+

19%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals

75%

Karviná 2+ goals

41%

Karviná 3+ goals

17%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

72%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

36%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)

54%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 101 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 1.16 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 + Karviná defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karviná scores more

40%

level

26%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

34%

Karviná at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Abdulla Yusuf Helal

Bohemians 1905 · F

7.9

Match Events

1'

J. Matoušek

4'

Vojtech Smrz

9'

F. Vecheta↳ A. Memić

38'

Abdulla Yusuf Helal↳ M. Dostál

46'

R. Hrubý← A. Čermák

63'

E. Singhateh← D. Planka

69'

Jiři Fleisman

71'

A. Jánoš← V. Smrž

77'

Kahuan Vinícius← D. Samko

77'

M. Regáli← A. Memić

80'

Lukas Soukup

81'

J. Shejbal← M. Ristovski

81'

D. Pleštil← J. Matoušek

88'

L. Ezeh← R. Mikuš

90+2'

Adam Jánoš

90+4'

O. Petrák← V. Drchal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KarvináBohemians

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots12

8Corners6

6Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots12

3On Target7

6Off Target3

9Blocked2

11Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

452Total Passes216

354Accurate Passes135

78%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Karviná vs Bohemians 1905

Bohemians 1905 beat Karviná 2-1 in Czech Liga on August 17, 2024.

Goals: J. Matoušek (1'), F. Vecheta (9'), Abdulla Yusuf Helal (38').

Karviná controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Městský Stadión in Karviná.

Karviná vs Bohemians 1905 — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Karviná vs Bohemians 1905