Bohemians 1905 1–3 Karviná: Result & Stats

Bohemians 1905

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Karviná

5/16/2024

Czech Liga · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bohemians 190556%

×Draw21%

Karviná23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians 1905Expected goals in this matchKarviná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.26

Bohemians 1905

2.06

Karviná

1.26

Bohemians 1905 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

1.13

1.40

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Bohemians 1905

1.42

Karviná

1.13

allows per match

Bohemians 1905

1.40

Karviná

2.71

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less

Karviná+0.67scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Karviná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw

77%

Bohemians 1905 or Karviná

79%

Draw or Karviná

44%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

33%

Karviná wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

87%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

61%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

34%

Karviná 1+ goals

72%

Karviná 2+ goals

36%

Karviná 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

71%

Karviná (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Karviná defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.06

Karviná attack 1.13 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more

56%

level

21%

Karviná scores more

23%

Bohemians 1905 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff