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Karviná vs Artis — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Karviná
Karviná
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Artis
Artis
L. Ezeh 45'
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3UMT Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karviná54%
×Draw22%
Artis24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná
1.94
Artis
1.24

Karviná creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Karviná
2.15
Artis
1.56

allows per match

Karviná
0.92
Artis
1.72

finishing

Karviná+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karviná or draw
76%
Karviná or Artis
78%
Draw or Artis
46%

Winning margin

Karviná wins by 2+
31%
Artis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karviná 1+ goals
86%
Karviná 2+ goals
58%
Karviná 3+ goals
30%
Artis 1+ goals
71%
Artis 2+ goals
35%
Artis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karviná (draw refunded)
69%
Artis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Artis away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná attack 2.15 + Artis defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

Artis attack 1.56 + Karviná defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Karviná scores more
54%
level
22%
Artis scores more
24%

Karviná at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Karviná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
L. Ezeh
62'
M. Dolezal← Kahuan Vinicius
62'
Papalele← M. Franko
62'
L. Ezeh← P. Kacor

Statistics

KarvináArtis
Overview
5Corners8

Match Recap: Karviná vs Artis

Karviná beat Artis 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

Goals: L. Ezeh (45').

The match was played at UMT Kovona in Karviná.