Artis 1–2 Karviná: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Karviná

A. Laczkó 72'

R. Durosinmi 68'

L. Budínský 44'

10/1/2022

FNL · Round 10Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Artis45%

×Draw23%

Karviná32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchKarviná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.45

Artis

1.77

Karviná

1.45

Artis creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 15 away

1.53

creates per match

1.80

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Karviná

1.80

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Karviná

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Karviná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Karviná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Artis or draw

68%

Artis or Karviná

77%

Draw or Karviná

55%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

24%

Karviná wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

83%

Artis 2+ goals

53%

Artis 3+ goals

26%

Karviná 1+ goals

77%

Karviná 2+ goals

42%

Karviná 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

59%

Karviná (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Karviná away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Karviná defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Karviná attack 1.80 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Artis scores more

45%

level

23%

Karviná scores more

32%

Artis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

44'

45'

53'

59'

G. Reteno Elekana← P. Sokol

63'

68'

72'

73'

76'

77'

77'

84'

M. Bednář← D. Machalík

84'

M. Rolinek← J. Žídek

84'

M. Papadopulos← R. Durosinmi

89'

A. Krcik

90'

M. Papadopulos

90+4'

V. Neuman

Artis

Karviná

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Maléř

59'▲G. Reteno Elekana←▼P. Sokol

77'▲M. Zikl←▼P. Vandas

77'▲T. Weber←▼E. Otrísal

84'▲M. Bednář←▼D. Machalík

Artis substitutes

ElekanaZiklWeberBednář

Manager: T. Hejdušek

63'▲A. Krčík←▼A. Memić

73'▲D. Bartl←▼J. Rezek

84'▲M. Rolinek←▼J. Žídek

84'▲M. Papadopulos←▼R. Durosinmi

Karviná substitutes

KrčíkBartlRolinekPapadopulos