Karviná U19 4–0 Frýdek-Místek U19: Result & Stats

Karviná U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Frýdek-Místek U19

P. Desmond Chiemela 90+1'

P. Kacor 86'

D. Graf 45'

D. Baumgartner 21'

8/19/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 3Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karviná U1966%

×Draw18%

Frýdek-Místek U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karviná U19Expected goals in this matchFrýdek-Místek U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.20

Karviná U19

2.52

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.20

Karviná U19 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

2.16

creates per match

0.87

1.52

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Karviná U19

2.16

Frýdek-Místek U19

0.87

allows per match

Karviná U19

1.52

Frýdek-Místek U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw

83%

Karviná U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19

82%

Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19

34%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+

44%

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals

92%

Karviná U19 2+ goals

71%

Karviná U19 3+ goals

45%

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals

70%

Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals

34%

Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.52

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Karviná U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more

17%

Karviná U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Baumgartner

45'

D. Graf

86'

P. Kacor

90+1'

P. Desmond Chiemela

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff