Frýdek-Místek U19 3–0 Karviná U19: Result & Stats

Frýdek-Místek U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Karviná U19

5/8/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 18Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1949%

×Draw24%

Karviná U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-Místek U19Expected goals in this matchKarviná U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.19

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.68

Karviná U19

1.19

Frýdek-Místek U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

1.07

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.07

Karviná U19

1.24

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.13

Karviná U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw

73%

Frýdek-Místek U19 or Karviná U19

76%

Draw or Karviná U19

51%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+

26%

Karviná U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals

81%

Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals

50%

Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals

24%

Karviná U19 1+ goals

70%

Karviná U19 2+ goals

33%

Karviná U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more

49%

level

24%

Karviná U19 scores more

27%

Frýdek-Místek U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff