Karviná II 3–0 Hranice: Result & Stats

Karviná II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hranice

6/9/2024

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 31Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karviná II50%

×Draw23%

Hranice27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karviná IIExpected goals in this matchHranice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.31

Karviná II

1.87

Hranice

1.31

Karviná II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

1.51

creates per match

1.06

1.57

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Karviná II

1.51

Hranice

1.06

allows per match

Karviná II

1.57

Hranice

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par

Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Hranice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw

73%

Karviná II or Hranice

77%

Draw or Hranice

50%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+

28%

Hranice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals

85%

Karviná II 2+ goals

56%

Karviná II 3+ goals

29%

Hranice 1+ goals

73%

Hranice 2+ goals

38%

Hranice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)

65%

Hranice (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Hranice away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Hranice defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.87

Hranice attack 1.06 + Karviná II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karviná II scores more

50%

level

23%

Hranice scores more

27%

Karviná II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff