Hranice 1–4 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Hranice

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Karviná II

11/7/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hranice38%

×Draw24%

Karviná II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HraniceExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.57

Hranice

1.58

Karviná II

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

1.37

creates per match

1.51

1.63

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Hranice

1.37

Karviná II

1.51

allows per match

Hranice

1.63

Karviná II

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hranice or draw

62%

Hranice or Karviná II

76%

Draw or Karviná II

62%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+

19%

Karviná II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals

79%

Hranice 2+ goals

47%

Hranice 3+ goals

21%

Karviná II 1+ goals

79%

Karviná II 2+ goals

46%

Karviná II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)

50%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hranice scores more

38%

level

24%

Karviná II scores more

38%

Hranice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hranice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff