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Karviná II vs Heřmanice Slezská — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
5 – 0
Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
9/26/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karviná II87%
×Draw8%
Heřmanice Slezská4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
3.63
Heřmanice Slezská
0.75

Karviná II creates 384% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.84
Heřmanice Slezská
0.47

allows per match

Karviná II
1.03
Heřmanice Slezská
4.41

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Heřmanice Slezská →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
96%
Karviná II or Heřmanice Slezská
92%
Draw or Heřmanice Slezská
13%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
72%
Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
97%
Karviná II 2+ goals
87%
Karviná II 3+ goals
68%
Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
53%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
17%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
95%
Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Heřmanice Slezská away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 4.41 → ÷2 → 3.63

Heřmanice Slezská attack 0.47 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Karviná II scores more
87%
level
8%
Heřmanice Slezská scores more
4%

Karviná II at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Karviná II 5–0 Heřmanice Slezská

Karviná II beat Heřmanice Slezská 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.