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Heřmanice Slezská vs Karviná II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Karviná II
Karviná II
5/14/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 22Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská14%
×Draw15%
Karviná II71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.23
Karviná II
2.90

Karviná II creates 136% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Karviná II
2.37

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Karviná II
1.47

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
29%
Heřmanice Slezská or Karviná II
85%
Draw or Karviná II
86%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
5%
Karviná II wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
71%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
35%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
13%
Karviná II 1+ goals
94%
Karviná II 2+ goals
78%
Karviná II 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
16%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
14%
level
15%
Karviná II scores more
71%

Karviná II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Heřmanice Slezská 2–5 Karviná II

Karviná II beat Heřmanice Slezská 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.