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Karviná II vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
3/27/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karviná II68%
×Draw17%
Beskyd Frenštát15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
2.60
Beskyd Frenštát
1.13

Karviná II creates 130% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.84
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Karviná II
1.03
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
85%
Karviná II or Beskyd Frenštát
83%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
32%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
47%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
92%
Karviná II 2+ goals
73%
Karviná II 3+ goals
47%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
68%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
31%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
82%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.60

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Karviná II scores more
68%
level
17%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
15%

Karviná II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná II vs Beskyd Frenštát

Karviná II beat Beskyd Frenštát 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.