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Beskyd Frenštát vs Karviná II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
CANC
14:00
Karviná II
Karviná II
4/18/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát29%
×Draw21%
Karviná II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
1.53
Karviná II
2.08

Karviná II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Karviná II
2.37

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Karviná II
1.47

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
50%
Beskyd Frenštát or Karviná II
79%
Draw or Karviná II
71%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
13%
Karviná II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
78%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
45%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
20%
Karviná II 1+ goals
87%
Karviná II 2+ goals
61%
Karviná II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
36%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
29%
level
21%
Karviná II scores more
50%

Karviná II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beskyd Frenštát face Karviná II (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Beskyd Frenštát hosting Karviná II. Match starts April 18, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Beskyd Frenštát host Karviná II at Stadion Na Nivách.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.