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Karviná II vs Baník Ostrava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Ostrava II
Baník Ostrava II
3/10/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karviná II28%
×Draw23%
Baník Ostrava II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
1.32
Baník Ostrava II
1.83

Baník Ostrava II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 65 away

creates per match

Karviná II
1.51
Baník Ostrava II
2.08

allows per match

Karviná II
1.57
Baník Ostrava II
1.14

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Baník Ostrava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
51%
Karviná II or Baník Ostrava II
77%
Draw or Baník Ostrava II
72%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
12%
Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
73%
Karviná II 2+ goals
38%
Karviná II 3+ goals
15%
Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals
84%
Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals
54%
Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
36%
Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Baník Ostrava II away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.08 + Karviná II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karviná II scores more
28%
level
23%
Baník Ostrava II scores more
49%

Baník Ostrava II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Karviná II 1–0 Baník Ostrava II

Karviná II beat Baník Ostrava II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.