Baník Ostrava II 2–1 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Karviná II

8/6/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Bazaly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Baník Ostrava II54%

×Draw22%

Karviná II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava IIExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.30

Baník Ostrava II

2.02

Karviná II

1.30

Baník Ostrava II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 37 away

2.25

creates per match

1.51

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II

2.25

Karviná II

1.51

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.09

Karviná II

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw

76%

Baník Ostrava II or Karviná II

78%

Draw or Karviná II

46%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

32%

Karviná II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

87%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

60%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

33%

Karviná II 1+ goals

73%

Karviná II 2+ goals

37%

Karviná II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

69%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more

54%

level

22%

Karviná II scores more

24%

Baník Ostrava II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff