Karsiyaka 3–0 İzmir Çoruhlu FK: Result & Stats

Karsiyaka

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

10/20/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd Roundİzmir Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karsiyaka58%

×Draw27%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarsiyakaExpected goals in this matchİzmir Çoruhlu FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.54

Karsiyaka

1.40

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

0.54

Karsiyaka creates 159% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

0.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Karsiyaka

1.00

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

0.40

allows per match

Karsiyaka

0.67

İzmir Çoruhlu FK

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karsiyaka+0.00on par

İzmir Çoruhlu FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karsiyaka ↓

İzmir Çoruhlu FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Karsiyaka or draw

86%

Karsiyaka or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

73%

Draw or İzmir Çoruhlu FK

42%

Winning margin

Karsiyaka wins by 2+

29%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Karsiyaka 1+ goals

75%

Karsiyaka 2+ goals

41%

Karsiyaka 3+ goals

17%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1+ goals

42%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 2+ goals

10%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Karsiyaka (draw refunded)

80%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karsiyaka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

İzmir Çoruhlu FK away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karsiyaka attack 1.00 + İzmir Çoruhlu FK defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

İzmir Çoruhlu FK attack 0.40 + Karsiyaka defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Karsiyaka scores more

58%

level

27%

İzmir Çoruhlu FK scores more

14%

Karsiyaka at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Karsiyaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff