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İzmir Çoruhlu FK vs Karsiyaka — League #1027 2026

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Karsiyaka
Karsiyaka
Y. Uzunoglu 54', 17'
E. Ozturk 43'
E. Akgun 32' (pen)
10/12/2025League #1027League #1027 · Group 4 - 6Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

İzmir Çoruhlu FK10%
×Draw18%
Karsiyaka72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
0.63
Karsiyaka
2.13

Karsiyaka creates 238% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
1.00
Karsiyaka
2.50

allows per match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK
1.75
Karsiyaka
0.25

finishing

İzmir Çoruhlu FK+0.00on par
Karsiyaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İzmir Çoruhlu FK ↓

Karsiyaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

İzmir Çoruhlu FK or draw
28%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK or Karsiyaka
82%
Draw or Karsiyaka
90%

Winning margin

İzmir Çoruhlu FK wins by 2+
2%
Karsiyaka wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

İzmir Çoruhlu FK 1+ goals
47%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK 2+ goals
13%
İzmir Çoruhlu FK 3+ goals
3%
Karsiyaka 1+ goals
88%
Karsiyaka 2+ goals
63%
Karsiyaka 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

İzmir Çoruhlu FK (draw refunded)
12%
Karsiyaka (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İzmir Çoruhlu FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Karsiyaka away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İzmir Çoruhlu FK attack 1.00 + Karsiyaka defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Karsiyaka attack 2.50 + İzmir Çoruhlu FK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

İzmir Çoruhlu FK scores more
10%
level
18%
Karsiyaka scores more
72%

Karsiyaka at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Karsiyaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Y. Uzunoglu↳ T. Unlu
32'
E. AkgunPenalty
43'
E. Ozturk↳ A. Eroglu
54'
Y. Uzunoglu
İzmir
Karsiyaka
Engin Dursun
Manager: Engin Dursun
Burhanettin Basatemür
Manager: Burhanettin Basatemür

Match Recap: İzmir Çoruhlu FK vs Karsiyaka

Karsiyaka beat İzmir Çoruhlu FK 4-0 in League #1027 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Uzunoglu (17', 54'), E. Akgun (32' pen), E. Ozturk (43').

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.